#AnambraDecides: Expect above 10.52% Voter Turnout in Ihiala LGA, APGA to lead again

ataphyte election monitoring desk has predicted that Professor Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) will lead in the supplementary election for Ihiala Local Government Area (LGA) of Anambra State.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) admitted that it did not deploy election resources to Ihiala LGA. 

Prof. Florence Obi, the Commission’s Returning Electoral Officer (REC) for the State said, “We have collated results for 20 out of the 21 Local Governments Areas. The outstanding result is for Ihiala Local Government Area, where for various reasons the commission could not deploy materials yesterday. 

Consequently, based on constitutional considerations, and provisions of the Electoral Act, as well as revised regulations and guidelines for the conduct of elections issued by the Commission, supplementary election, is indicated for Ihiala Local Government Area”

Based on this omission on its part, INEC suspended the process of collation of results and declaration of a winner in the Anambra Guber Elections until a supplementary election was held in the 326 polling units in Ihiala LGA of the State. The Anambra REC declared the supplementary elections for Ihiala LGA will hold Tuesday 9th November.

So far, the collated results for the 20 LGAs show that Charles Soludo of APGA has won 18 LGAs with total votes of 103,946. Valentine Ozigbo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) comes second with a total of 51,322 votes and won only Ogbaru LGA. Andy Uba, the candidate of the All Progressive Party (APC) comes third with a total vote of 42,942 but has won no LGA yet. Ifeanyi Uba of the Young Progressive Party comes fourth with a total vote of 20,917. The YPP won the Nnewi North LGA.

Expect High Voter Turnout in Ihiala on Tuesday

The fate of Prof. Soludo of APGA still hangs in the balance. The other candidates look forward to the votes from the 148,407 registered voters in Ihiala LGA to topple the 103,946 lead of APGA’s candidate.

Naturally, going by the generally low voter turnout in the 2021 Anambra elections, which stands at an average of 10.52% for the 20 LGA results already collated, there shouldn’t have been worries for the current leading candidate, Mr. Soludo, who leads the closest contender by 52,624. 

At a 10.52% voter turnout rate, the total number of registered voters in Ihiala expected to eventually be at the polling units should have been in the region of 15,612 out of the 148,407 registered voters.

However, the statistical trend shows that voter turnout in Ihiala LGA has been higher than the state’s average voter turnout in 2 of the last 3 elections. In the 2010 election that produced the eventual winner, Peter Obi, total votes in Ihiala was 20.45% of the total registered voters in the LGA, topping the state average of 16.33%. 

Also in the last election that returned Willie Obiano as the Executive Governor of the State, Voters in Ihiala turned out to vote by 23.92%, higher than the general voter turnout of 21.63%.

Also in the past 3 elections in the state, the majority votes in Ihiala were cast for the APGA candidate in each of those elections.

Thus, while all the other contending parties may look up to the Ihiala electorate to turn out en masse to vote at a rate higher than the current 10.52%, so as to turn the tables in their own favour, the trend indicates that this expected higher voter turnout in Ihiala LGA will favour the APGA candidate than all the other contenders for the highest office in Anambra State.