Cash crunch likely to influence vote-buying during 2023 elections

Cash crunch is hurting businesses and households in Nigeria, forcing the economy to a sudden halt. Many nano and micro businesses have closed shop due to the lack of cash or patronage while a number of families are scavenging to eat three times in 24 hours.

Dataphyte, in its earlier report, had captured how cash shortages had compelled residents of Abuja, the country’s capital, to pay charges as high as N2000 to get N5000. 

This situation is not peculiar to the FCT, as cash crunch has led to pandemonium across the entire nation. Due to the cash crunch resulting from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s naira redesign policy, citizens have difficulties accessing cash for their daily transactions. According to the apex bank, old notes in N200, N500, and N1000 denominations are to be exchanged for newly designed ones.

The CBN, through the commercial banks, has mopped N2.3 trillion worth of old notes, but there is no certainty as to how much new currency the apex bank has put into the economy.

With the current cash shortages amid an election, what is the fate of the election, given the history of vote-buying in previous elections?

A Chatham House report analysed social beliefs and expectations of the people that mostly influenced vote-buying. Thus, individuals rely on short-term benefits against the credibility of the candidates. This is driven by harsh economic conditions of a people, especially when the majority are generally poor.

In a previous report, Dataphyte had looked at the interconnection among poverty, income inequality, harsh economic conditions, and vote-buying behaviour, noting that this trend was more prevalent in rural areas than urban centres. The report showed that these factors could influence vote-buying in the forthcoming elections.

The last round of the off-cycle election was marred by vote-buying and undue influences by politicians.

Voters speak

Seven of the potential voters interviewed for the purpose of this story said they would take money from anybody who offered them due to the current cash crunch. Two said they would vote for whoever gave them money while the rest said they would take the money and vote for the people they believed in.

One of the respondents in Abuja, Haruna Ismail, said: “I will vote for anybody who gives me money, but if any other person offers more money I will change my mind and vote for him/her.”

But a Port Harcourt-based businessman, Onyeka Uchendu, said he would take the money but would vote his conscience.

Vote-buying likely to worsen

While vote-buying is common in Nigerian elections, the current cash shortages may worsen it.

An election expert, Austin Aigbe, responded in two ways. He noted that this was one aim of the cash swap policy – to reduce vote-buying. He noted that lack of access to the new notes would reduce vote-buying, pointing out that this could be why the governors were fighting this policy.

The election expert, however, said the cash shortages had led to a greater desperation for cash on the people, noting that this would also enable vote-buying.

“Thus, if politicians plan to buy votes for as much as N10,000, the current desperation and need for cash would reduce the amount,” he said. He further said the electorate could sell their votes for as low as N1000 because they desperately needed cash.

A UK-based political scientist, Dame Victoria Ayantola, said the cash policy would make it hard for politicians to have cash for both logistics and vote-buying. However, she explained that it was an act of human rights violation to deny people of their cash.

“You see, it may reduce votes, but it is like using one medicine to cure all diseases. If you redesign the currency this year to curb vote-buying, will you also change the currency in four years’ time when there will be another round of elections?” she asked.

“Secondly, it is human rights violation to watch your citizens die because you want to stop a few persons. What you have done is that you have increased desperation among the electorate and have forced them to collect anything politicians offer them on the election day,” she added.

However, a lawyer, Samuel Oyigbo, explained that the situation could be favourable to the country in the long run, noting, however, that it as worng of the executive to have disobeyed the judgment of the Supreme Court.

Meanhile the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has said its officers would track any cash meant for vote-buying on the election day, stressing that the job as easier as the new notes were easily traceable.