Data Vs Buhari: Is the President’s Claim on Nigeria’s Rice Production Sufficiency Accurate?

This is not the first time members of the Buhari Administration have “prophesied” about the country’s rice production and export.

On January 5, 2022, President Buhari stated that Nigeria now produces enough rice for local consumption and even exports. He said this in his interview with Seun Okinbaloye and Maupe Ogun-Yusuf of Channels Television.

The President had access to the interview questions beforehand as mentioned by one of his interviewers and some of the answers sounded well oiled and rigged to suit the ears.

President Buhari spoke on a number of issues, from the rising insecurity in the country to unemployment, the economy, the upcoming 2023 general elections among other things; and a lot of reactions have trailed the interview, especially his comments on Nigerians returning to the farm. 

The President has held on to this position for a long time, and his unwavering position on agriculture suggests he really does believe that farming is the cure to the country’s many problems or at least its economic challenges. 

Buhari’s Claim on Rice Production, Consumption and Exportation in Nigeria

While on the issue of agriculture, the president made an assertion that suggested that Nigeria has reached a level of self-sufficiency with respect to rice production.

“Look, when we closed the border between Benin and Niger Republic, we stopped the importation of rice, now Nigerians, we produce the rice we need and even export”, said the President.

Rice is one of the most consumed staples in the country. Many Nigerians eat rice at least twice a week, and in some homes, it is a Sunday ritual – whether Fried, Jollof or with stew – however prepared, one of them is consumed. 

In recent times, Nigeria has recorded an increase in its rice production. In 2020, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the country produced 5.45 million metric tonnes of rice. An increase of 147.79% from its 2.20 million metric tonnes production in 2000.

Nigeria Milled Rice Production from 2000 to 2020 (in Tonnes)

What Data Says about Rice Consumption in Nigeria

While Nigeria currently leads as the largest producer of rice in Africa and 14th in the world, available data reveals the country still hasn’t met its domestic rice demand or consumption. Simply put, the amount of rice the country produces is not enough to meet local consumption. 

Nigeria’s Rice Production versus Consumption from 2007 to 2018 (in Metric Tonnes)

In 2018, the FAO placed the country’s rice production at 5.6 million metric tonnes. While the consumption was at 6.9 million metric tonnes according to the data from KPMG, indicating that consumption surpassed production. 

According to FOA, Nigeria’s rice production climbed to 5.63 million metric tonnes in 2019. An article by BBC that same year noted that the country consumes almost 7 million tonnes of rice in a year.

In 2020, rice production dropped to 5.45 million tonnes. Using the same consumption figures for 2019 (7 million metric tonnes), it still shows an almost 3 million metric tonnes deficit. The likelihood is that the consumption figures increased considering that Nigeria’s population increased from 201 million in 2019 to 206 million in 2020.

The President’s intention may have been to bolster spirits and encourage current rice farmers to double down on their efforts and for the rest of the “lazy Nigerian youths” to head to the farms but his exaggeration is factually incorrect. 

Ironically, the truth about the sufficiency of rice production in the country, which does not meet local consumption needs, might have served the same purpose. Except for the part where the truth would also have revealed that Nigeria makes up for the deficit by consuming rice that is still smuggled or imported into the country illegally. 

The Senate Committee on Agriculture, in December 2021, said about two million metric tonnes of rice were smuggled or imported into the country in 2021, although the committee did not provide the source of their data. However, data from Knoema puts the figure of Nigeria’s rice importation in 2020 at 1,900 metric tonnes.

Nigeria’s Rice Importation from 1960 to 2020 (in 1000 Metric Tonnes)

What Data says about Nigeria’s Rice “Exportation” Figures

The President in his response on rice production also mentioned export. According to him “…we produce the rice we need and even export”. By this, the President simply means that Nigeria now exports rice. 

Well, the volume of Nigeria’s rice export at least in the last 7 years is zero and the volume of projected rice export for 2022 is also zero.

Although a country may still export a particular product even if it does not have enough to meet its local consumption, this is not the case with Nigeria, as available data from Knoema and FAO show that Nigeria has not exported a single grain of rice in the last 7 years. Except there is illegal or undocumented government-sanctioned exportation of rice then the president’s assertions are untrue.

Nigeria’s Rice Exportation from 2014 to 2022 (in 1000 Tonnes)

This is not the first time members of the Buhari Administration have “prophesied” about the country’s rice production and export. Clearly, President Buhari wants these prophecies to have come to pass and be a plus for his administration, however, data revealed his claim during his interview is inaccurate which makes it false or at best unproven. 

The prophecy is for an appointed time but likely not 2022.