How well did Yahaya Bello of Kogi State perform in his administration?

All things being equal, the current Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, will hand over to a new Governor on January 14, 2024, having served his constitutionally allowed two terms.

Yahaya Bello became the governor of Kogi State in 2015 after he was chosen by the All Progressives Congress (APC) as a replacement for the late Abubakar Audu, who originally won the election but died before the result was announced.

In 2019, Bello was reelected and will complete his second and final term in January next year. As the State prepares for another election in November, it is important to examine how Yahaya Bello of the APC performed in his two terms as the governor of Kogi State.

GDP, IGR & Fiscal Sustainability 

GDP

GDP is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. GDP calculates all the economic activities carried out within a year in an area. In this case, it concerns the GDP of Kogi State. 

As noted by Dataphyte in a previous report, GDP gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how that economy is performing. 

On this indicator, we are not able to assess how Yahaya Bellow performed because subnational time series GDP data is scarcely available. So, we cannot tell if the GDP of the state grew or not. 

However, the 2022 State of States report by BudgIT put the estimated GDP of the state at 3.69 trillion, ranking as the third state in the North-central with the largest GDP. Then among the 36 states, it is the 16th with the largest GDP.

On a per capita basis, using the state’s 4.44 million population, the GDP per capita is pegged at N830,788, the highest in the North-central region. 

IGR

Internally generated revenue (IGR) is a major instrument for social and infrastructural development in a state. It is what provides the government with the resources to make responsible decisions that are needed to satisfy the basic needs of citizens in the state.

IGR is generated by states through Pay-As-You-Earn Tax (PAYE), Direct Assessment, Road Taxes, and revenues from Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).

Ideally, IGR should form the primary source of revenue for states. However, it has taken the second position as the majority of the states in Nigeria now depend on monthly statutorily allocations from the central vault to carry out their businesses.

This is quite evident in Kogi State, as an analysis of the IGR and total allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shows that the state is heavily reliant on FAAC allocations even though there was an annual increase in the state’s IGR. 

Between 2015 to 2022, Kogi State’s total revenue (IGR plus FAAC) was a little above half a trillion naira (N506.78 billion). Of this amount, IGR was only N114.87, representing 23%, while FAAC allocation accounted for 77%, clearly indicating that the state relied heavily on FAAC disbursements within these periods for survival. 

The implication of this is if allocation from the central government is cut off, the state may not be able to meet its basic obligations, such as payment of salaries, wages, pensions, and even providing other important social services and infrastructures. 

Thus, Kogi State will have to think of more innovative ways to increase its internal revenue and rely less on allocations from Abuja. This will help to improve its fiscal sustainability. 

Fiscal Sustainability

Fiscal sustainability is the ability of a government to sustain its current spending, taxation, and other policies without risking its financial stability or failing to meet its obligations or promised expenses.

On this indicator, the state has shown little improvement in the annual ranking done by BudgIT. However, there’s still room for improvement as the state is still ranked among the bottom 10 states on fiscal sustainability. Moreso, its performances in 2017 and 2018 are still far better than its recent ones. 

In the last six years, BudgIT has assessed the fiscal sustainability of all 36 states in Nigeria using indices such as the ability of the state to cover its operating costs solely with its IGR, its ability to meet all operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without resorting to borrowing, its debt sustainability, and its emphasis on capital expenditures over recurrent expenses.

In the 2017 report, Kogi State ranked 17th place out of 36 states in terms of fiscal performance. It was the third best among its peers in the North-central region, just below Niger and Kwara States. 

The following year, the state dropped from 17th to 21st position. But still retained its 3rd position among its peer in the North-central.

The state’s performance further dropped in 2019. In fact, it ranked as the worst state in the 2019 fiscal performance ranking.

In the 2020 report, the state climbed 7 places to 29th position. Since then, there has been a climb every year, emerging 27th place in the 2022 ranking. Nevertheless, it is still among the bottom states with the lowest fiscal performance in the country.

On its debt, Kogi State, as of 2022, was the 14th least indebted state in Nigeria with respect to domestic debts. 

According to the data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), Kogi’s domestic debt at the end of 2022 was N93.62 billion, an increase from the 2021 figure.

While on foreign debt, the state’s foreign obligations dropped to $55.20 million from its previous $55.99 million.

From the data, the Yahaya Bello administration leaned towards more domestic borrowing in the period under review because while the state’s domestic debt increased significantly for the most part of the years under review, the external debt remained almost the same between 2015 to 2021. 

Unemployment rate

How did Yahaya Bello of APC fare on employment? In 2016, Yahaya Bello promised that his administration would tackle the issue of unemployment in the state. Specifically, he promised that the blueprint his administration has come up with would create one million jobs for the youths in the state. Thus, reducing unemployment. The Governor also reiterated this in his second term.

According to the data from NBS, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017, Kogi State had an unemployment rate of 17.6%. The second lowest in the North Central region, just below Benue’s 17.4%, and the 12th among the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

The unemployment rate increased to 19.7% in Q4 2018. The worsened in Q4 2020, with the unemployment rate pegged at 39%, according to the data from NBS. 

Under the Yahaya Bellow administration, Kogi State’s unemployment rate rose from 17.6% in 2017 to 39% in 2020.

Poverty rate

One of the many challenges of Nigeria today is the increasing poverty rate, and different promises have been made by the government to tackle this menace.

In 2016, Yahaya Bello stated that with the abundance of mineral resources, Kogi State has, there shouldn’t be anything like poverty in the state. Thus, he promised that his administration would match ideas with resources to improve the state. 

Well, from the data available, the poverty rate in the state is still on the high side.  

According to the 2019 Nigeria Poverty and Inequality Report by NBS, Kogi State had a poverty rate of 29% as of 2019. This means that 29% of the state’s population was living below the poverty line.

Then, the NBS used an actual per capita expenditure of N137,430 per year (or N376.50 per day) to measure Nigeria’s poverty rate. 

The state fared relatively Compared to its peers in the North-central region. It had the second lowest poverty rate in the region, while it was the 14th lowest among the 35 states that were assessed. 

In 2022, the NBS released the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report, which assessed poverty using four dimensions: health, education, living standards, and work and shock.

The new report puts the poverty rate in Kogi State at 61%, indicating that more than half of the population is now living in multidimensional poverty. This is a significant increase compared to the less than 30% of the population which was living below the poverty line in 2019. Also, the state is no longer the second with the lowest poverty rate in the North-central region. 

Number of Out-of-School Children

Another important indicator to consider in this assessment is the number of out-of-school children in the state. 

One of the building blocks of any society is education. The United Nations regards it as a key to escaping poverty. The Kogi State government also recognised education as such. Therefore, promised to revamp education in the state and drastically reduce the number of out-of-school children in the state.

According to data published by NBS in 2018, 124,290 lacked access to education in Kogi State. Out of this figure, girls accounted for 70%, while boys made up 30%.

With 124,290 out-of-school children, Kogi State had the second lowest out-of-school children in the North-central region and the 9th nationally. 

Since 2018, no data on out-of-school children has been published by NBS. As such, we may not be able to assess if the number of out-of-school children increased or reduced under the Yahaya Bello administration. 

It is, however important to state that the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria has risen from its estimated 10 million in 2018 to 20 million, as disclosed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) last year. Thus, with this national increase in the number of out-of-school children, Kogi State may likely experience a corresponding increase.

Ease of Doing Business Ranking

Across the world, business climate plays a vital role in attracting both local and international investments to a country or state.

Yahaya Bello recognised this and vowed to create an enabling environment to attract investors and to ensure businesses flourish in the state.

In 2021, the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) published a report which assessed the 36 states and FCT on ease of doing business. The report ranked Kogi State 22nd out of the 36 states and FCT in terms of ease of doing business with a score of 5.22 out of the 10 index score.

The four indicators that were used in the 2021 ranking were Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness. 

These indicators were expanded to six in the 2022 ranking. 

Kogi State ranked 34th place in the new report on ease of doing business, falling from its 2021 ranking. With a 4.97 score which is below the national average, Kogi State is ranked among the 5 states with the worst business environment in the country. 

Under-5 Mortality Rate

Under-five mortality is the probability of a child dying between birth and their fifth birthday. 

According to the 2020 NBS women and men report, as of 2018, Nigeria had an under-5 mortality rate of 132 deaths per 1,000 live births, indicating that 132 out of every 1,000 children born would die before age 5.

The Under 5 mortality rate in Kogi State was put at 148, higher than the national rate of 132, making it the 9th state with the highest under-5 mortality rate in the country. 

However, the state has recorded some improvement in this indicator. The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) released in 2022 put the under-5 mortality rate at 67 deaths per 1,000 live births, an improvement from its 148 rate in 2018. 

While this improvement is noteworthy, it is important to emphasize that the state is still far from achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of 20 deaths per 1,000 live births. Thus, there is a need to develop and implement additional policies and strategies to reduce under-5 mortality further and work towards achieving this goal.