Is Nigeria really ready for hitch-free population census?

Critical to any nation’s development, demographic data serve as a framework for policy formulation, resource distribution, and strategic planning. It is the social portrait of a country’s population at a particular time. The population census in Nigeria has been a disputable exercise characterised by undue political interference and gross manipulation of population figures.

The 1962 population census — the first nationwide headcount after independence in 1960—was reputedly well organised and comprehensive in coordination. However, the result was widely contested and subsequently rejected over suspected inflation of the census figures in some regions. This controversy is believed to have emanated from the extant hostility between major geopolitical zones in the country. 

Controversial census figures 

One major challenge with the conduct of a credible population census in Nigeria is excessive politicisation. A lot of incentives such as resource allocation, legislative representation, and provision of infrastructural facilities are tied to population figures, and this especially has made the exercise highly susceptible to manipulation — with each region tirelessly striving to divert the incentives to themselves. According to the history of population censuses in Nigeria published by the National Population Commission (NPC), the preliminary figures for the 1962 population census put Nigeria’s population at 45.26 million, with Northern Nigeria having 22.01 million and the other three regions—West, East, and Midwest – having 23.25 million altogether. Southern politicians accepted the result but Northern politicians rejected it. The then Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, in consultation with regional premiers canceled the census results and two weeks later established a five-member board to conduct the 1963 census. 

The 1963 population census, despite being fiercely contested by the governors of Eastern and Mid-Western Nigeria, was applauded by the Federal Government possibly due to heavy representation of northern political elites in the government at the time. The hostile atmosphere the controversy created would later be sustained in subsequent census exercises in the country, indirectly turning population figures into a political chess game.

Operating the decennial population census system (albeit inconsistent), another headcount was due to be held in 1973. The 1973 census recorded Nigeria’s population at 79.8 million, with the North having 64.4 percent of the entire figure. Like the 1962 census, it was rejected, and the result was annulled on the ground of suspected inflation of figures and irregularities in some states of the federation. 

The 1991 and 2006 population censuses, though controversial, put the population of the country at 89 million and 140 million, respectively. 

After the last population census in 2006, government planning has been based on projections. According to the United Nations (UN), the population of the country is currently estimated at 223 million. With reasons linked to the persistent tension around the subject, the country could not hold a population census in the due year of 2016 after the 2006 headcount exercise. Seventeen years later, the country is set to hold another census on the date that will be decided by the President Bola Tinubu administration.

Planning for the unknown

Demographic data are important for development planning. For a big economy like Nigeria, it is improper that national policies and programmes in the country since the last census have been hinged on mere estimations as against accurate data. In those years, new social realities have surfaced that demand critical policy interventions. Ironically, Nigeria has relied on the 2006 population figures and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) annual growth rate of 3.2 percent for its population projection. 

The annual population growth rate in Nigeria from 2006 to 2021 as published by the United Nations is estimated at a 2.71 percent, reaching 2.77 percent in 2011. However, there was a decline from 2012 with a population growth of 2.73 percent, a 1.44 percent decrease compared to 2.77 percent in 2011. In 16 years, the average population growth stood at 2.60 percent, more than the global average of around 1.1 percent. Though fluctuating, the population trend depicts the lack of population governance policies in Nigeria. These require constant monitoring to produce a detailed national dataset that will mirror new trends as they occur. 

What difference will the 2023 census make? 

The 2023 population census will be the first digital census compared to previous exercises. Demarcation of enumeration areas was administered using Geographic Information System (GIS) and satellite imageries between 2014 through 2021 to produce census maps that would serve as the primary guide for the designation of tasks for enumerators and the distribution of census materials across areas. Electronic forms enclosed in Personal Digital Assistant Devices will be used to collect data on buildings, households, and individuals per Enumeration Area (EA). 

Deployment of digital technology to the census process is expected to increase data accuracy and authenticity with little or no chance of manipulation and undue inflation of figures. Also, with the results of this census, Nigeria is expected to have data to execute socio-economic and institutional planning to address the contemporary conditions of its people. However, some factors may affect the effectiveness of the exercise. 

Probable hindrances 

Since Independence, all efforts of the Nigerian government to conduct a credible population census have been met with some form of obstacles, some of which have been captured in the preceding paragraphs. 

One factor is the exclusion of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the overall population counting. Internal displacement in Nigeria is caused by multiple or complex events ranging from natural disasters, terrorist attacks, wars, and conflicts. The Boko Haram insurgence and other non-state armed groups have led to significant displacement in the North-East of the country since 2009.

According to the data available from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, the number of IDPs in Nigeria as of December 2021 was 3.2 million. With this figure, one would expect that any population census to be organised should capture this set of people for proper documentation that would help in informing development policies that reflect their needs. In the country’s census history, the 1973 census was the first headcount that included homeless people — the IDPs.

Another factor that may hinder the effectiveness of the impending census is the functionality of digital methods. Since the 2023 population census is planned to be fully digitised, it is imperative to examine the feasibility of heavy reliance on digital technology in a country plagued with a poor digital infrastructure. Cases of technical glitches—such as the BVAS machine malfunctioning in some polling units during the just concluded general elections – validate this fear. Is Nigeria ready to digitise social data collection? Are staff competent enough to operate the digital devices to be deployed? These are questions that are begging for answers. 

Having established the context within which the population census in Nigeria exists, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to organise a non-contested census in the country as long as it is still viewed as a tool for political representation and resource allotment. However, as population census remains crucial to socioeconomic planning, the Nigerian government must find means of mitigating the political skepticisms surrounding it. 

To change the old narratives in the imminent national headcount, the commission in charge and census officials are required to be fully prepared in their administration such that it will be quite impossible for political actors or regional forces to influence the results of the exercise.