Unknown Gunmen, Ungoverned Spaces, and Unavoidable Tragedies

Two sad developments took place this week in Imo and Plateau states which raises concerns about the state of Nigeria’s fragile nationhood.

On Thursday, a staff of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was shot dead by unknown gunmen in Imo State, forcing INEC to suspend the Continuous Voter Registration Exercise (CVR) exercise in Ihitte Uboma Local Government Area of the State. According to an INEC spokesman, the staff member, Mr. Nwokorie Anthony, was shot dead at Nkwo Ihitte (PU 004) in Amakohia Ward (RA 02) of Ihitte Uboma Local Government Area. Two other staff involved in the registration exercise at the polling unit were also declared missing.

Similarly, a few days ago, gunmen reportedly killed at least 142 persons in fresh attacks on some communities in Kanam and Wase Local Government Areas of Plateau State, North-central Nigeria.

When put together in the context of numbers, the two events paint a disturbing picture of the bestiality of Nigeria’s so-called unknown gunmen, the nation’s ungoverned spaces, and the ripple effect of these developments on electioneering, security and overall development.

Unknown Gunmen, Unpleasant Consequences

The attack on INEC officials in the South East threatens the growing interest of South Easterners both in the electoral process and the Nigerian project.

In 2019, voters in Imo and the rest of the South East recorded the lowest numbers in PVC collection.

According to data released by INEC in the build-up to the 2019 general election, the North-West recorded 18,231,193 collected PVCs, followed by the South-West (12,814,246), South-South (11,120,948), North-Central (10,540,893), North-East (10,450,882), and South-East with (8,590,420).

The region trailed behind in record of PVCs collected and recorded high numbers of uncollected PVCs, put at 1,466,710 at the time.

Recent data released by INEC showed that there hasn’t been any significant improvement in peoples’ interest in the electoral process in the region. This has been made more complicated by the security threats and killings that have thrown the region into chaos.  

Although data collected from INEC as of February 2022 showed more people in the southern part of the country have completed their registration compared to those in the northern part of the country, the South-East performs poorly still. 

For instance, while 1,763,584 have completed their registration in the South, a total of 1,565,620 have completed their registration in the North as of February. But of these figures, the South-East recorded the least number of registrants for PVC so far.

A breakdown shows that the South-South recorded 806,636; North West (621,025); South-West (608,618); North-Central (536,042); North-East (408,553) and the South-East recorded 348,330.

South-East: Like 2019, Like 2023?

State-by-state analysis of the figures showed Osun State recorded the highest number of those who have completed their registration with 259,726 registrants, ostensibly because of the governorship election scheduled for the second half of the year. Other states with significant numbers are Delta (188,919); Bayelsa: 178,282; Rivers: 164,497; Kano: 162,859; and Anambra: 141,719.

As of February, Imo had the lowest number with about 31,000 registrants.

Although the CVR is yet to be concluded, unlike 2019, the statistics shows that there is a significant drive in the South-South towards registration.

As was recorded in 2019, voters in the North West, South-West and North-Central are still highly keen on voter registration. Voters in the South-East are however, as in 2019, still least in number of people being registered as eligible voters at election.

With the attack on INEC staff in Imo, and the horrifying images flying about across social media, the sad development is bound to complicate an already depressing situation—thus alienating many voters from the registration exercise.

Ungoverned Spaces; Unavoidable Mayhem

In addition to the attacks in the South-East, the North-Central has equally had its share of tragedies stemming from Nigeria’s weak security architecture.

At least 10 soldiers have been killed and an unconfirmed number of others wounded after an attack by armed groups locally known as bandits on a military facility in Birnin Gwari in the northwestern state of Kaduna in Nigeria.

These attacks put into context the danger in Nigeria’s ungoverned spaces, fueling deaths and catastrophe.

Ungoverned spaces are defined as zones that lay beyond the reach of government which pose a significant threat to security and stability. They are ussually perceived as hotbeds of terrorist organisations and sundry terror activities, hence containing these spaces falls within the strategic frontier of security priorities.

They include Boko Haram camps in Sambisa forest, bandit hideouts in Kwiambana and Ajjah forests in Zamfara, herdsmen camps in Birnin Kogo forests in Katsina, havens for kidnappers in Guma forests between Benue and Nasarawa States, hideouts of gunmen on the Plateau, etc.

In recent years, Nigeria and other countries around the Lake Chad basin and the Sahel have witnessed frequent attacks from non-state actors including terrorists, bandits, kidnappers and criminal herdsmen, often operating in ungoverned spaces.

The U.S. Agency for International Development says that at least 2,000 civilians were killed in violent conflict in just 2019 in the largely ungoverned spaces where Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso meet. There are at least 600,000 people displaced by fighting and humanitarian needs in Burkina Faso alone, according to the United Nations.

According to United States’ official records, the Lake Chad basin region has at least five major terrorist organizations, whose members often flow between them and with weapons flowing south from Libya.

Depressing Numbers

Over 35,000 people have been killed in northern Nigeria since 2009 when Boko Haram launched its insurgency aimed at overthrowing Nigeria’s secular government and establishing an Islamic state, according to multiple data sources.

The ripple effects in terms of internally displaced persons in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states have seen over 2.2 million pushed into uncertainties, while health services and education have been severely destroyed.

Inability to contain ungoverned spaces, has led to attacks in neighbouring countries, killing and displacing civilians in Cameroon, Chad and Niger, expanding into north-central Nigeria.

According to data from the Global Centre for Responsibility to Protect, the emergence and expansion of armed banditry in the north-west resulted in at least 4,900 people killed between 2018-2020. In the same vein, kidnappings of students and abductions for ransom by bandits have become endemic, with more than 1,000 children kidnapped in 2021 alone.

To craft effective policy responses to contain ‘ungoverned’ spaces and those operating there, it must be conceived as a direct consequence of institutional failure and dangerous politics that involve politicians conniving with warlords who in turn become a threat to the state. This clarity is important.