Why are Nigerians leaving and what can the Government do?

In recent years, Nigeria has witnessed a mass exodus of its people. For instance, in the first quarter of 2023, the number of Nigerians moving to Canada surged to the highest figures in nine years. A 2021 Africa Polling Institute survey reveals that 7 out of every 10 Nigerians will choose to leave the country if given the opportunity. Indeed, young citizens intending to migrate may have strongly contributed to the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) issuing a record-breaking number of 1,899,683 passports in 2022. 

What is more worrying is the loss of young Nigerian professionals and academics to these massive waves of outward migration, now popularly referred to as Japa. For instance, in 2022 alone, Nigerian students in the UK grew fivefold to reach 325,000. 

Similarly, since 2017, more than 75,000 nurses have left, in a country that has one nurse to 1,160 patients (instead of 1 to 8), and one doctor to 5,000 patients instead of an expected average of 254 people. So, why are Nigerians leaving en masse? 

This was probably the question a popular YouTuber, Fisayo Fosudo, had in mind when he asked on X (Twitter): “People who left Nigeria, what was the thing that made you finally decide to leave?”. His post (tweet) has recorded more than 14 million views and 860 comments of Nigerians highlighting their reasons. This post forms the population sample for this article. 

Figure 1: Snapshot of Tweet asking what made people leave Nigeria Source: https://twitter.com/Fosudo/status/1700939571419058570

Data Sample 

576 relevant responses were filtered from Fosudo’s Post on the 14^th of September 2023. 74 of these responses were security-related, 57 of them were about politics and governance issues, 54 of them cited job and career-related reasons, 32 stated transportation-related problems, 21 responses mentioned the quest for a better educational experience, and 26 referred to the events that followed the #EndSARS protest in October 2020. 

Figure 2: Breakdown of the six themes that emerged from the 576 responses collected.

Above, #EndSARS was separated as an independent factor because it is a social movement that does not strictly fit within the scope of one unit of analysis.  For instance, although the movement started as agitations towards the police, events and aftermath of the protests can be said to have influenced the political dynamics of the 2023 presidential election. Starting as a police brutality issue, it transformed into demands for good governance and accountability and changed the country forever. 

From the collected responses, netizens claim to have left the country because of #EndSARS more than for education purposes. This shows how critical the movement is towards the current wave of outward migration in the country. Also, although in small numbers, other reasons stated in responses collected include inadequate health infrastructures, sexual harassment, peer pressure, and general poor living standards in the country.

Why are Nigerians Leaving? 

                       Figure 3: Graph created by author  

After filtering through the comments made either as a direct response or quoted post to the original post, six factors emerged as the leading reasons Nigerians leave. Firstly, the experiences of police lawlessness, extortion, harassment, and brutality. Some narrated how they were arrested for driving a car or harassed for dressing in a kind of way; some even had their money stolen from them by police officers. 

A Global Rights study reported 164 extra-judicial killings by security forces between January and September in 2021. Many Tweeps particularly emphasised the police’s inability to help them when in distress. For instance, they say when they get robbed and they report it, the police request large sums of money before acting on the incidents. 

A few Netizens also mentioned how their experiences of kidnapping influenced their desire to leave the country. Citizens generally do not feel safe in the country, and that is why they decide to relocate to countries they think have better security services. Due to the high rates of crime and insecurity in Nigeria, the country ranks low on the 2023 Global Peace Index, at the 144th position out of 163 countries. 

Secondly, economic insecurity arising particularly from unemployment was another theme that emerged from the collected responses. Some narrate how, as first-class graduates, they could not get good-paying jobs or how badly their employers treated them. Some others conclude that the country offers a bleak career prospect for them as young graduates. 

Citizens also express how the educational institutions expected to prepare graduates for the labour market are ineffective. The quest for better education made them leave the country, as lecturers often embark on strike, disrupting academic activities. 

The fourth theme relates to politics. Many users cited the 2019 re-election of Muhammadu Buhari and the election of Bola Tinubu as their reasons for migrating out of the country. They express their distrust in the administration of both presidents, and as such, would rather leave the country. 

In addition, transportation-related issues also prompted citizens to leave. Delayed, cancelled, or poorly managed local flights, bad roads, and heavy traffic are a constant reference under this theme. For example, a user posted that it only took four months of traffic in Lagos to decide to leave the country. Another posted that whilst driving at night on a road without street lights, they struggled to see through the dark. However, just as they were struggling to drive with low visibility, a politician with a convoy of vehicles drove against traffic at high speed and almost hit them. That was the moment they vowed to leave the country. 

Lastly, the #EndSARS movement was a recurring reason adduced by users. #EndSARS started as an online movement against widespread brutality by a notorious unit of the Nigerian Police Force – Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in 2016. It, however, transformed into massive waves of protests in October 2020 and metamorphosed into greater demands for good governance, justice, and accountability thereafter. Although the protest is said to have heavily changed Nigeria’s political landscape, in the responses collected, citizens indicate that their demands have not been met and that the government does not value the lives of the people.

What can the government do?

The analysis above shows that most of the reasons citizens provided are largely endogenous. That is, they are more of the push than pull factors. This implies that the government has everything to give to stem the tide of the mass exodus of the country’s talents. In the short-run, the Nigerian government needs to be responsive, but in the long-run, it needs to proactively deal with the issues that the citizens complain about. This is to ensure the country benefits from the immediate opportunities Japa presents, whilst working to solve the structural problems causing it.

Primarily, citizens want to feel safe in their country, and as such, police reform becomes an urgent matter requiring a strong political commitment. All the 13 attempts to reform the institution between 2015 and 2021 have proved abortive because they are deemed either unsustainable or performative. The police force requires strong leadership to enforce discipline within its rank and file. 

Also, although the Tinubu presidency has taken bold moves in ensuring a somewhat financial independence for public universities, concrete measures need to be taken to ensure that lecturers’ demands do not jeopardise students’ academic experience. States and federal governments, through well-researched policies and tax waivers, also need to create enabling environments for persons and businesses to thrive.

It is, however, important to note that the above solutions are easier said than done. They will take time to mature. Hence, the Nigerian government needs to make bold moves to tap into the immediate benefits that outward migration provides, for example, remittances.  According to the World Bank, in 2022, remittances to Nigeria, at $20.1 billion, account for around 38% of total remittance inflows into sub-Saharan Africa. The country is also ranked globally as the 10^th highest remittance-receiving nation. Japa therefore presents an economic opportunity for Nigeria. 

However, government policies must be practical and sustainable. For instance, the Central Bank of Nigeria 2020 policy that mandates all remittances to be paid to beneficiaries in dollars only further encouraged back-door remittances and loss of revenue. In fact, the policy may have contributed to the 21% dip in remittances the country witnessed between the half years of 2022 and 2023. However, through a circular passed in July 2023, this ban has now been lifted and Nigerians now have the choice to receive money through a foreign currency, eNaira or the Naira. Although this is a less stringent measure on the international transfer of money into the country, this policy may not be enough to shore up remittances for investment purposes. Therefore, monetary policies can further target remittances for investment inflows, for example, through Special Vehicle Entities (SPE), to encourage Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) into the country.