Buhari’s promise to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty might be achievable in 2040 not 2030

The president, Muhammadu Buhari, during his speech on Independence day renewed his pledge to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty.

He stated that his administration, through its social development program, N-power, had increased the number of beneficiaries from 500,000 to 1 million and increased access to credit for the poor and vulnerable through government enterprise and empowerment program loans.

The pledge of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2030 was first mentioned by the president in July 2019 as a second-term projection for his administration and has been re-echoed by both the President and other key members of his administration. 

Is the goal achievable?

Data from the world poverty clock shows that Nigeria has had a constant rise in the poverty level since the start of the Buhari-led administration. 

Nigeria’s Poverty Trend from 2016 to 2030

According to the data, from 2016 till date, approximately 14.8 million Nigerians have been pushed into poverty. Over 6.5 million Nigerians were pushed below the poverty line in 2020 which makes it the highest number of people pushed into poverty in a year. 

Yet, the president in his democracy day speech on June 12 2021 claimed that his administration has raised 10.5 million Nigerians out of poverty in the last two years.  Contrary to his statement,  a report by Premium Times, noted that 10 million Nigerians slipped into extreme poverty rather than come out of it as the president claimed. 

Suffice it to say, achieving this goal would be much more difficult due to the severity of the economic downturn and decline in fiscal resources, and in addition to lifting people out of poverty, measures to prevent them from falling back into poverty are not in place.

Closest to lift 100 million out of poverty is 2040

Further review of Nigeria’s projected poverty data shows that by 2030 over 105 million out of 257 million Nigerians will be living below the poverty line. And if Buhari’s claim of lifting 10 million people out of poverty in two years is taken at face value, it will take 20 years (2040) rather than the projected 10 years (2030)  to achieve the goal of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty. 

And despite criticism of this audacious statement, the president has stated that lifting 100 million Nigerians is feasible and realizable through remarkable grit and determination. Given the circumstances, an independent evaluation of existing social development programs to determine how they have contributed to lifting the claimed 10.5 million people out of poverty would be good proof of this feasibility. Already there has been some criticism of these programmes and the expenditure of the Humanitarian ministry under which these programs are managed.

Mr. Atoloye in his review of the strategy for growth-led poverty alleviation in Nigeria acknowledged that only rapid and sustained economic growth is the solution to absolute poverty reduction in any poverty-stricken country including Nigeria. 

Furthermore, if Nigerians are to believe in the lofty goal of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2030, a clearly communicated sustainability plan is required. The reason for this is that the Buhari administration, which proposed lifting 100 million people out of poverty, will end in 2023, raising concerns about the project’s continuity and sustainability in the next administration.